Global Logistics & Supply Chain Digest | January 2026

The first month of 2026 has become a litmus test for global logistics. Markets have demonstrated that traditional routing models and cargo flow planning no longer work. Even minor political or geopolitical shifts now have an immediate impact on tonnage availability, freight rates, and transit times. January has clearly confirmed that logistics is no longer a passive operational function. Under current conditions, the ability to rapidly adjust routes, buffers, and resources has become the key indicator of supply chain resilience and efficiency.

Return to the Suez Canal and the New Routing Reality

After more than two years of using alternative routes via the Cape of Good Hope, shipping is gradually returning to the Suez Canal. Its de facto blockage following Houthi attacks extended Asia – Europe transit times from 26 to 36 days, increased freight and insurance costs, and partially redirected cargo flows toward air and multimodal solutions.

Following successful trial voyages, Maersk has resumed its MECL service via the trans-Suez route, while CMA CGM continues to rely on alternative routes, citing ongoing security risks. Analysts from Xeneta and WorldACD note that these asynchronous decisions are shaping a new hybrid transit model, where multiple routes operate in parallel. This effectively eliminates a single delivery standard.

In such conditions, strategic route planning, the use of alternative ports, and flexible inventory management remain critical. These tools help reduce supply disruption risks while maintaining control over logistics costs.

Tariff Truce: A Temporary Pause Instead of Stabilization

At the beginning of 2026, the United States announced a temporary postponement of import tariffs on goods from several European countries. The proposed duties ranged from 10%, with a potential increase to 25%, but their implementation was suspended amid political negotiations. Nevertheless, trade relations between the US and the EU remain unstable: the framework agreement is effectively frozen after the European Parliament suspended its review due to tariff threats and political pressure from the US.

Even without the actual introduction of tariffs, the mere risk already affects logistics and procurement decisions. Companies are revising shipment schedules, building additional inventories, adapting routes and customs structures, and gradually shifting supply chains toward more defensive — but also more expensive — models.

The consequences are visible across sectors. Manufacturing companies face the risk of supply shifts and production cycle disruptions, while rising logistics costs propagate throughout the entire supply chain. This complicates procurement planning, reduces operational predictability, and increases the need for flexible flow management—particularly in import-dependent and time-sensitive industries.

Venezuela as a Supply Chain Reconfiguration Factor

Statements by US President Donald Trump regarding large-scale investments in restoring Venezuela’s oil infrastructure have already caused noticeable disruption in global oil and transportation markets. Despite massive crude oil reserves — around 303 billion barrels — actual production remains at approximately 1.1 million barrels per day, far below historical peaks. Given deteriorated infrastructure, long-term sanctions, and chronic underinvestment, Venezuela is unlikely to quickly regain the role of a systemic supplier.

The primary market impact lies not in volume growth, but in the redirection of flows. Part of Venezuelan crude will be redirected to the US and Europe, while Asian consumers — particularly independent Chinese refineries — will be forced to seek alternatives in Iran or the Middle East. This reshapes routing patterns and vessel demand, increasing the role of Aframax and Suezmax tankers in the transatlantic segment, while VLCCs remain essential for long-haul shipments from the Middle East and potentially Canada.

For global logistics, these shifts increase freight rate volatility, create uneven port congestion, and intensify competition for tonnage across regions. Venezuela becomes not a stabilizing factor, but an additional source of uncertainty — highlighting the importance of flexible routing and contingency logistics scenarios.

Regulatory Changes: IMO, EU ETS, and Container Loss Reporting

From 1 January 2026, several international and European regulatory changes in maritime transport came into force. The International Maritime Organization (IMO) introduced amendments to the MARPOL and SOLAS conventions, as well as to the STCW-F Code on seafarer training and certification. These include mandatory reporting of container losses, installation of electronic inclinometers on new vessels, higher crew training and certification standards, and updated SOLAS technical requirements for vessel design and maintenance. The measures aim to enhance crew safety, reduce accident risks, and improve transparency in maritime operations.

At the same time, the EU continues the rollout of the EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) in maritime transport. In 2026, shipping companies must cover 70% of CO₂ emissions with allowances, increasing to 100% from 2027, with gradual expansion to methane and NOx. This directly affects freight rate formation and environmental surcharges, forcing carriers to adopt more strategic cost planning.

These regulations require increased scrutiny of carriers, route diversification, and cargo insurance strategies. At the same time, higher safety and transparency standards create a more robust foundation for maritime transport and support long-term risk management across global supply chains.

Systemic Risks and Emerging Opportunities

Early 2026 has exposed the structural fragility of global supply chains, where risk stems from the accumulation of factors rather than isolated events. The partial return of container lines via the Red Sea remains fragmented and uncoordinated, leading to uneven capacity release and unpredictable transit times. This is particularly critical for industries with strict seasonal or contractual commitments. In parallel, tariff uncertainty in US–EU and US–UK relations is shifting from a political risk to an operational one: imports slow down, critical components accumulate, and just-in-time models give way to buffer-based approaches.

The most vulnerable sectors remain automotive, FMCG, and companies highly dependent on transatlantic supply. Additional volatility is introduced by geopolitical decisions in energy markets, such as the redistribution of Venezuelan oil flows, which alters tanker demand structures.

At the same time, these changes create opportunities for businesses capable of rapidly adapting routes, reassessing sourcing strategies, and balancing contract and spot models. Competitive advantage increasingly belongs to companies that integrate risk management into a systemic supply chain approach rather than focusing solely on optimizing individual segments.

SYNEX Logistics: Staying Ahead in a Volatile Freight Market

The current market configuration forces businesses to rethink the role of logistics as a management decision-making tool. Single-route strategies and a sole focus on minimum cost no longer ensure stability. Companies need to:

• develop multiple parallel scenarios;

• build in alternative routes and ports;

• flexibly allocate cargo across multimodal solutions.

Freight management is shifting from tactical response to strategic risk balancing. A mix of contract and spot solutions, early tonnage reservations, and validation of alternative carriers reduce business sensitivity to market fluctuations. Amid tariff and regulatory uncertainty, logistics must be integrated with finance and commercial planning, ensuring that procurement, inventory, and pricing decisions reflect changes in routes, customs rules, and capacity availability.

Data transparency becomes a key resilience factor. Monitoring routes, port congestion, and actual capacity utilization enables early risk detection and proactive action. Supply chains built on these principles help maintain cost control and service reliability — even in a turbulent global environment.